How many blockbusters will last longer then one week on top?

[Akitsu]

Lol... don't mind Maxx... he's the kind who'd rather see a well run dry and disappear rather than keep it going by pouring a few cups of water in from time to time.

Personally I've just been in a funk about predicting the box office... it's absolutely crazy this year, and movies that should have legs don't... others who don't have legs in the first place are running marathons.

My current prediction is that Cowboys & Aliens is going to pull over a massive cross pollination of genre lovers together, grabbing all the fans of Bond, Jones, Westerns, Scifi, and adventure movies. Given the coverage of the movie, and it's premiere at Comic Con... everyone wants to see it.

The irony is, I think it's going to have a massive kid appeal... yet it has no toys, no coloring books, and no party mechandise... just like Ghostbusters did. Funny how the one thing NOT marketed to kids is potentially the most appealing.

[LLcruize]

OK, BoM has yet to post their forecast. Those boys seem to be holding off on the predictions until mid Friday now, which is a bit of a cheat because you have midnight showing numbers in by then so you can gauge it better. What is the fun in that? Shoot from the hip I say and take a chance to look like you don't know what the hell you are talking about.......LOL

We have three new films that should be in the top 5 grossing films of the weekend, but two of them, Cowboys & Aliens and Smurfs are getting mixed to horrible reviews respectively. The other new film, Crazy, Stupid, Love, has received mostly favorable reviews. The one new film that is getting all of the geek and critic love, Attack the Block, opens too, but it is on less than 10 screens, so it is no factor. So here it goes:

Cowboys & Aliens - 35 million
Captain America - 30 million
Crazy, Stupid, Love - 25 million
Harry Potter - 22 million
Smurfs - 20 million

I think Potter has enough in the tank to stay in the top 5 and beat out Smurfs (btw, fastest to a worldwide 900 million gross all-time). Watch though, CSL could be the counter programming event of the summer and it out grosses everyone this weekend. Don't think that will happen, but the promotion campaign has been aggressive and with all the fanboy fare that has been hitting the screens, the multiplexes could be ripe for a female invasion rather than an alien invasion. We shall see.

[LLcruize]

Here is the BoM predictions:

The Forecast, July 29-31
1. Cowboys & Aliens - $36 million
2. Captain America: The First Avenger - $29 million
3. The Smurfs - $26 million
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - $23.5 million
5. Crazy, Stupid, Love. - $19 million

Bar for Success
On the one hand, the bar should be low for Cowboys & Aliens, because it's a Western. On the other, Cowboys is a big alien invasion movie with big name talent behind it, and it's positioned as an intended event movie with a massive, year-long marketing campaign, so the bar should be high. With so much riding on it, an opening close to $50 million would give it justification. As for The Smurfs, the average of its comps is close to $30 million, so that's a reasonable number, while Crazy, Stupid, Love. could get by in the high teen millions.

Surprisingly, it is very close to what I predicted, to include grosses. The two films we differ on is they have Smurfs at 3 and CSL at 5, switched from what I had. Still, their grosses are within a million of what I predicted the 3 and 5 spot would get. Interesting.....


#################FRIDAY BO UPDATE#################

Looks like we under-estimated those little blue suckers. Actually, the totals from Friday don't surprise me. Our local theater was packed and lines long when we got there. I feared the worse, but when I saw the crowd, parents with kids, I knew exactly what movie they were going to. It sold out every show yesterday. so today's update from BoM isn't too much of a surprise, except that Cap looks like it will barely clear 20 million this weekend, not the sign of a film that will overtake Thor for the highest grossing comic film:

Smurf's - 13.3 million
Cowboys & Aliens - 12.9 million
Capt America: 7.8 million
Potter - 6.6 million
Crazy, Stupid, Love - 6.6 million

[LLcruize]

Well, I predicted:

Cowboys & Aliens - 35 million
Captain America - 30 million
Crazy, Stupid, Love - 25 million
Harry Potter - 22 million
Smurfs - 20 million

Actuals are:

Cowboys & Aliens - 36.2 million
Smurfs - 36.2 million
Captain America - 24.9 million
Harry Potter - 21.9 million
Crazy, Stupid, Love - 19.3 million

I WAY underestimated Smurfs (as did most) and over estimated Crazy, Stupid Love (but not as badly). I had a feeling the counter program card would fall this weekend, I just didn't expect it to be Smurfs, rather, thought it would be CSL. What is disappointing is the Cap weekend gross. It ended up falling 61 percent from last weekend. Going in, it was ahead of Thor, but now is behind. That means it will probably end up in the 150 to 160 million range.

DH pt2 with it's 21.9 million marked two major milestones. It has now become the highest grossing film in the Potter series of films and has based a billion worldwide. With it still going strong overseas and still chugging here in the states, it has a chance of equaling or passing ROtK's third place worldwide gross of 1.1 billion. That is as far as it can get. the 2nd place worldwide is Titanic at 1.8 billion. I don't see it getting 800 million more

[LLcruize]

OK, looks like I'm talking to myself again

This weekend is a pretty easy one. After C&A and Smurfs battled to a close 1/2 result respectively last weekend, Apes will come in and dominate this weekend. BoM has posted their forecast for August and I tend to agree with most of it:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3233&p=.htm

This is a higher profile release month than what we normally see for an August. Still lots of stuff to see across all of the major genres of movies; rom/com, action/adventure, horror, chick drama, R-rated comedy, etc.

Speaking of R-rated comedies, this has been the year of the R-rated comedies making a serious comeback. There are no less than 5 which have or will cross the 100 million mark. August serves up three more. So for those ringing the dooms day bell for the R-rated comedies, you pulled the rope too early. Looks like they are doing just fine.

[LLcruize]

Is anyone out there??? Don't hate on me posting my 5th post in a row without a reply. A brother isn't getting any kind of help and the BoM forecast is out so I gotta post.

I agree with the estimates. I think Apes is going to do bananas business (pun intended), with Cowboys falling quickly. Smurfs will keep getting solid coin. The Change-Up may end up as one of the least successful rated-R movies this summer given the poor reviews coming out. Below is the forecast from BoM:

The Forecast, Aug. 5-7
1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $45 million
2. The Smurfs - $18.5 million
3. Cowboys & Aliens - $16 million
4. Captain America: The First Avenger - $14 million
5. The Change-Up - $13.5 million
6. Crazy, Stupid, Love. - $12.5 million
7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - $11.5 million

[Akitsu]

Lol... it wasn't intentional. I just didn't sleep the last few days.

Rise looks like it's going to have definite legs... especially with the combination of new technology (the actors weren't shot on green screens, but in real locations, using new WETA tech that's an evolution of what they used on Avatar) and Sirkis, who's in talks to be elected the first mo-cap star primo king of awesomesauce.

Those fans who love the originals might want to head over to Costco tho, as they have the 5 BLURAY SET... for a criminally low $28.99. Ahhhh apey goodness.

I think Project Nim is going to surprise a lot of people, as the popularity of Rise may get people interested in this little documentary about a real ape who was raised by humans and taught to sign.

[LLcruize]

You gotta be kidding me!!! I have been lusting after the 40.00 price tag that Amazon has had for that set. Oh man, damn, I may have to sell some stuff to get that for 28.99! I am a huge fan of the originals. Not seeing it online, in fact, they (Costco) don't show to have any movies on their site. Son of a ......

I have heard a few murmurings about Serkis possibly getting an Oscar nod for Apes. I don't know if the Academy is that daring. I think Hollywood is afraid of motion capture and digital characters in general. Too bad, it is but another tool to be used. For the time being, there is no replacing the real actor.

[Akitsu]

Yeah, love the originals myself. I nearly cried when Burton blatantly ignored the insanity of the originals in favor of what was, IMHO, a complete waste of time. When you think about the bleeding statues, nuke worshipping, and other crazy things from the original... putting a bong in the middle of the movie (yes, apparently the Burton apes are stoners) just seems like phoning in the weirdness.

Ironically, in the Stan Winston book I'm reading about all the movies they've made effects for, Stan and his son tested out an actor driven animatronic mask when Planet of the Apes was first being talked about, and the pictures showing the depth of emotion they were able to achieve is simply breathtaking... a real shame they didn't get the opportunity to use it for that film, as it would have been much better looking at least. You can check out some fuzzy pics of it here from AICN, but the photos in the actual book put these to shame.

As for Andy getting the Oscar, here's a trailer showing off the new technology, which is awesome because it shows the Academy just how much the actor is actually used in this... rather than relying on a special effect.

[LLcruize]

When we were all thinking about repeats, I don't think anyone thought Apes would be one of the repeaters. But it looks like it will be. This is BoM's forecast:

The Forecast, Aug. 12-14
1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $25 million
2. Final Destination 5 - $21 million
3. The Help - $20.5 million
4. The Smurfs - $13 million
5. 30 Minutes or Less - $12.5 million
- Glee: The 3D Concert Movie - $8 million

Bar for Success
Final Destination 5 doesn't need to build on its predecessor to keep the franchise alive, but it still needs a solid retention. An opening in the low-to-mid $20 million range would be fine. Given its literary and crowd-pleasing credentials, The Help needs to come close to the movies that inspired its release date, Julie & Julia and Eat Pray Love. A decent showing for 30 Minutes or Less would be in the high teen millions, while Glee needs to at least out-shine the Jonas Brothers ($12.5 million).

It looks like they are right on, the Friday numbers are in:

Rise - 8.1 million
Help - 7.6 million
Dest 5 - 7.3 million
30 mins - 4.8 million
Smurfs - 3.8 million
Glee 3D - 2.7 million

I will not be seeing any of these this weekend, I hope to see Green Lantern. It is at our local discount theater already so going to see it on the cheap. It isn't in 3D though, they only have one theater with 3D and that theater is being taken up by Kung Fu Panda 2.

[LLcruize]

BoM is saying this weekend, no new movie will win the box office. I tend to agree with them. Of the new bunch, Fright Night is the only one I have a desire to see. As we have only two more weekends of "official" summer box office, I tend to agree with the assessment below:

The Forecast, Aug. 19-21
1. The Help - $17.5 million
2. Fright Night - $16.5 million
3. Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $15.5 million
4. Conan the Barbarian - $15 million
5. Spy Kids: All the Time in the World - $12 million
- One Day - $5.5 million

Bar for Success
Conan the Barbarian is the wannabe event picture of the crop, but its genre is far from bulletproof, so a start in the $20 million range would be passable. Since Spy Kids 4 arrives eight years after its predecessor, it doesn't have the same burden to perform, but it still needs $20 million plus to show its box office relevance. Given that unromantic vampire movies don't have a history of breaking out, Fright Night could claim an opening in the high teen million range as a success. The bar is low for One Day, but it's still the sort of movie that should be doing $10 million or more its first weekend.

[LLcruize]

Wow, the thought was the weekend would see The Help rule and the three new big films start weak, but I don't think they thought it would be this weak:

The Help, 20.4m, Apes 16.3m, Spy Kids 12m, Conan 10m, Smurfs 8m and Fright Night 7.9m . The other new film One Day, took in 5.1m and ended up 9th.

I would say the biggest surprise there is how little Fright Night made. It received very good reviews and it is about a vampire which is the rage of today. But then again, could this signify the public finally being tired of vamps? Or more so, not willing to accept predator vampires? The one upshot for Fright Night is that it only cost 30m to make, so it might be able to get close to making back its production cost. Conan on the other hand cost 93m, noway it gets past 30m, so any other incarnations may well go the DTV route. Man, the Smurfs looks like it will get a sequel given it is over 100m now. Who would have thunk it earlier in the summer.

August, especially middle August, has never been known as a prime spot to be in, but I wonder they loaded too much into this weekend? The money made by Spy Kids is interesting given this isn't a low-key franchise. The 2nd and 3rd sequel did very well. Perhaps not having the same actors played a part. This marks the 5th film in a row from Rodriquez that has performed low. His last real hit was Sin City. Since it came out he has had Planet Terror, Shark Boy, Shorts, Machette and now this, all open at 12 million or less. Most have reached 25m at the box office, Sharkboy being the one that actually did decent at 39m. He is still one of my favorite directors, just wonder if he needs to find some better material.

[Chiclo]

I would say the biggest surprise there is how little Fright Night made. It received very good reviews and it is about a vampire which is the rage of today. But then again, could this signify the public finally being tired of vamps? Or more so, not willing to accept predator vampires? The one upshot for Fright Night is that it only cost 30m to make, so it might be able to get close to making back its production cost.

Fright Night is cursed with David Tennant. He seems like a nice guy but he's never in anything good.

[LLcruize]

He has been in some pretty decently received movies (critical and financial); HP: Goblet of Fire, How to train your dragon, Dr Who. Don't recognize much of his other stuff, which speaks to what you said that he seems to curse stuff he is in.

I know there was a lot of questions about where he was in relation to the trailers early on. Well, where was his character Peter Vincent that is. I'm thinking the middle of August was not the best time for this, an October release would seem to be a better place to have put it. Though, the original came out in August as well.

[Dusty]

I would say the biggest surprise there is how little Fright Night made. It received very good reviews and it is about a vampire which is the rage of today. But then again, could this signify the public finally being tired of vamps? Or more so, not willing to accept predator vampires? The one upshot for Fright Night is that it only cost 30m to make, so it might be able to get close to making back its production cost.

Fright Night is cursed with David Tennant. He seems like a nice guy but he's never in anything good.

Yeah, Doctor Who and Harry Potter are pretty awful and unsuccessful.