How many blockbusters will last longer then one week on top?

[LLcruize]

This is the last "soft" weekend of the month. After this, it is heavy hitters; DH pt2, Capt America and then Cowboys & Aliens. I think if Potter mania goes rampant the July 22nd weekend might be close, but I still see Cap having plenty to take the weekend. The wild card is Cowboys & Aliens. It isn't a movie that has all kinds of buzz. Cap taking two weekends in a row all depends on it's first weekend. If it has Thor numbers or higher out of the gate and positive word of mouth, it just may have enough in the shield to deny Cowboys & Aliens the July 29th weekend crown.

BTW Vicious, I was wrong. Revenge of the Fallen is still on sale through Amazon for 9.99 on Blu-ray. So IF Transformers doesn't take the weekend and you have to go out and buy Revenge of the Fallen, it will not hurt the wallet as much

[LLcruize]

BoM has put out their forecast for the weekend. Looks like the early momentum The Zookeeper enjoyed has been taken by Bosses, which looks like it will continue the success of R-rated comedies this summer. Here is what BoM says will be the outcome:

The Forecast, July 8-10
1. Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $44 million
2. Horrible Bosses - $29 million
3. Zookeeper - $24 million
4. Cars 2 - $14 million

They also put out the June report and it wasn't pretty. Due to under performing Lantern, First Class and Super 8, the month was the least attended June since 2000. I am thinking July is not going to suffer the same fate. With the records Transformers has set and the absolute domination Potter will have, this could be a record setting July. And oh by the way, after Potter there is still Capt America.

[Vicious]

BTW Vicious, I was wrong. Revenge of the Fallen is still on sale through Amazon for 9.99 on Blu-ray. So IF Transformers doesn't take the weekend and you have to go out and buy Revenge of the Fallen, it will not hurt the wallet as much

Go, Optimus! Kick the Zookeeper's ass! Cut off his face!

[LLcruize]

All is well Vicious, your Blu-ray collection will continue to be less RotF, LOL. Transformers took the weekend with 47 million, followed by Bosses with 28 million and Zookeeper at 21 million. The big surprise of course is Zookeeper. BoM had it pegged as a 150 million dollar grossing movie. Given that weak opening, Zookeeper looks to gross half that original estimate.

[LLcruize]

Potter is going to lay waste to everything this weekend. It has already sold 25 million in advanced midnight showings tickets (I have my double feature midnight showing tix tucked away). It has a legit chance to beat all kinds of records for most money earned for midnight showings (30 million set by Eclipse), single day (72.7 million set by New Moon) and weekend gross (158.4 set by TDK).

If it does take the weekend gross record and does so by a large margin, could we see it possibly holding on and actually beating Capt America next weekend? Hmmm, we shall see what it does.

[Vicious]

"Deathly Hallows Part Two" is at 97% on Rotten Tomatoes. Awesome.

[LLcruize]

I'm going to call it.........DH pt2 takes the number one spot a second weekend in a row. Even if it drops the normal 50 to 55 percent that comes after a huge opening, I think that is still enough to beat Cap. I don't see Cap pulling in more than 50 or 55 million this weekend. Any other weekend, that would assure a win, but I think DH pt2 has at least 60 million in it this weekend.

[Dusty]

I think you're right.

[LLcruize]

I just don't see Cap having a bigger weekend than Thor had at 65. It would take that kind of weekend to dethron Potter and I just don't see that happening. BoM hasn't posted their prediction for the weekend, but I bet they predict the same thing, we shall see.

[LLcruize]

BoM hasn't released their forecast for the weekend. Either Gray is at ComicCon or they are getting lazy with the forecasts over there. Other media outlets are pretty much predicting another weekend win for Potter such as Studio Briefing. Locally we only had a 1/4 of the midnight screenings for Cap that we did for Potter and that is probably a generous estimation. I imagine that is the case overall.

I think Potter taking this weekend is a given, so the big question is, can Potter make it three in a row? Will it have enough in the tank to hold off Cowboys & Aliens next week? This weekend's gross will be the tell tale on that. I don't see Cowboys & Aliens opening to more than 30 million, but it is getting a boost at ComicCon, but I think it probably has the most select group of persons it appeals to that if Potter doesn't drop more than 59% this weekend compared to last, it could very well have enough in the tank to be the only 3 time number one of the summer.

[LLcruize]

This is what BoM is saying will be the outcome of the weekend. I say they have one and two wrong, we shall see:


The Forecast, July 22-24
1. Captain America: The First Avenger - $62 million
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - $48 million
3. Friends with Benefits - $23 million
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $11.5 million
5. Horrible Bosses - $10.5 million

[LLcruize]

Well, showing why I don't professionally try to predict the box office, Cap made 26.6 on Friday, putting it on pace to make over 60 million this weekend. Potter on the other hand pulled in 14 million, a 91% drop from last Friday. The Cap number is not as surprising to me, but I didn't think Potter's Friday to Friday would drop that much. But again, why I don't do this professionally

[LLcruize]

OK, it has been established I don't know what the hell I am talking about when it comes to forecasting number one movies. Alas, that won't keep me from trying again

This weekend is a toss up in my opinion. I

You have Smurfs opening up, that is going to take the 10yr old crowd and younger, which means their parents will be going with them. Then you have Crazy, Stupid, Love, opening which is going to have the ladies pulling their boyfriends/husbands to see that. And you also have Cowboys & Aliens opening up who will basically get the single guys, the subset of girls who despise cutsie and rom/com movies and the small smattering of married with children/in-relationship guys who didn't get stuck with going to Smurfs or Love.

On top of all that competition, you also have the crap going on in D.C. with the debt ceiling and the uncertainty of persons receiving Federal funds not getting their checks next week so those folks will be staying home to save money. That is unless someone wrangles the tea party assholes into one room and holds them at gun point and allow everyone else to knock out a plan before the weekend.

All of that points to Cap being able to sneak in there and grab a second weekend crown. It is already out-grossing Thor after 5 days, so it looks like it has some legs.

[Maxx]

It takes some fucking balls to quintuple post.

I almost wish I wasn't the combo breaker.

I post out of sheer moderately drunken frankness, but c'mon dude. Social skills apply to the internet too.

[LLcruize]

Nobody was jumping in there, so like any good fisherman, you keep throwing the line out there and wait.

I didn't realize there was board protocol for if you had something to say but no one else had posted after you, that you had to wait until someone posted before you did again. I have a thought, I post.